It’s Sunflower Showdown game week, and we’ve got the next five or six days to talk about it and break things down.
So, in an effort to take an early and extraordinarily simple look at the recent rivalry between Kansas and Kansas State on the gridiron, one thing jumps out as by far the most obvious way for KU to be in the game.
Run the football.
There are all kinds of reasons for the Jayhawks (4-3 overall, 2-2 Big 12) to enter Saturday’s 11 a.m. battle with K-State (3-4, 2-2) at The Booth with the feeling that they’re the better team.
That hasn’t been commonplace during the past couple of decades, and it certainly has been tougher to do during the Wildcats’ string of 16 consecutive wins in the series.
But even with various strengths on their side — QB play, if KU doesn’t — the simplest way for Kansas to have success against the Wildcats seems to be finding a way to successfully run the football.
Don’t just take our word for it, though. A quick look at the four box scores from the KU-K-State games played in the Lance Leipold era illustrate this clearly.
In the games that were close — KU could’ve and maybe even should’ve won in both 2023 and 2024 — the Jayhawks ran the ball well.
Leipold’s team ran for 192 yards and 3 TDs on 34 carries last season and lost by two in Manhattan. K-State, meanwhile, ran for 226 yards and 1 TD on 38 carries in that one.
In 2023, in Lawrence, the Jayhawks flat-out out-performed K-State on the ground, rushing for 234 yards and 3 TDs on 41 carries, compared to 166 yards and 2 TDs on 37 carries for the Wildcats. K-State won by four.
In the two games that came before those, K-State outrushed the Jayhawks 242-88 in 2021 and 230-127 in 2022, winning those games by the scores of 35-10 and 47-27.
We get that Devin Neal was there for all four of those outings and played a huge role in KU’s success the past two seasons.
And Neal will not be in uniform for the Jayhawks on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean that the Jayhawks can’t find a way to scheme success and, more importantly, commit to running the football, using capable backs Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Leshon Williams, along with the QB run game by Jalon Daniels, to find success on the ground.
If they don’t, and the Jayhawks become one dimensional or rely too much on Daniels’ arm and success through the air, this one could be a much tougher mountain to climb.
The Wildcats have always been pretty tough against the run, but the stats through 7 games illustrate that running the ball is certainly possible.
K-State entered last week — both teams had a bye last weekend — ranked 86th in the country in rushing defense, giving up 154 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry and 12 rushing touchdowns to date.
KU’s rushing offense entered the week ranked 74th in the country at 155 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry and with 8 rushing TDs thus far.
Those numbers are awfully close to each other, so, if you think of it like a tug-of-war, whichever side can pull the rope closer to their sideline could have a real advantage in this game, assuming all other things remain equal.
With that in mind, here’s a quick glance at K-State’s most obvious strengths, the Wildcats’ weaknesses and how K-State looks in areas of concern for Kansas.
K-State Strengths
• Avoiding penalties – The Wildcats entered last week as the 5th best team in the country in this area, with just 23 penalties through 7 games. KU, meanwhile, was tied for 84th with 40 penalities against.
• Red Zone offense – K-State ranked 16th in the country in this area, going 20 for 21 with 13 TDs and 7 FGs. KU’s Red Zone defense ranked 127th, giving up 21 scores in 22 tries, with 12 of those being touchdowns and the other nine field goals.
• Red Zone defense – K-State has been equally as good on the other side of the coin inside the 20, ranking 32nd in this area by surrendering just 21 scores in 27 attempts (.778). KU’s Red Zone offense, meanwhile, ranked 114th, with the Jayhawks converting 22 of 29 red zone trips into points — 17 touchdowns and 5 field goals. Better red zone offense, particularly in scoring touchdowns, has been a major focus for Kansas in recent weeks.
K-State Weaknesses
• Pass Offense – Anyone who’s watched them knows that the Wildcats are better on the ground than they are through the air, even though QB Avery Johnson has had some somewhat surprisingly good moments in the most clutch situations. K-State ranks 72nd in pass offense, with 223 yards per game, 13 pass TDs, a 6.94 yards-per-attempt number and a 62.2% completion rate. KU’s pass defense, meanwhile, ranked 55th last week, giving up 206 yards per game through the air and a 62.7% completion percentage.
• 4th down conversions – The Wildcats rank just 80th in fourth-down conversions, getting half of their attempts, with 9 successes in 18 tries. KU’s 4th down defense has allowed 11 conversions in 17 tries, ranking 109th in this department on defense.
• Fumbles lost – KSU has given it up on the ground four times in 7 games, ranking 85th in the country entering last week. KU, meanwhile, has recovered 4 fumbles in 7 games, which ranked the Jayhawks 24th overall entering last week. For what it’s worth, K-State also ranks very high in fumbles recovered, getting 7 in 7 games to sit in the top five nationally.
How K-State looks in areas of concern for KU
• 3rd down conversion rate – The Jayhawks have struggled on 3rd down, getting just 27 first downs in 82 attempts to rank 119th in the country at 32.9% entering last week. K-State hasn’t been great in this area, so that could provide a glimmer of hope for the KU offense. The Wildcats sat in 85th place nationally last week, with successful stops on third down 38.7% of the time.
• Total Defense – The Jayhawks have given up 500 yards or more, including 600+ in a loss to Cincinnati, in each of the last three games. That landed Kansas in 101st place nationally entering last week, with an average of 394 yards per game surrendered including 19 touchdowns through seven games, which is nearly three per game. K-State’s offense is only slightly better than those marks, ranking 83rd last week at 367 yards per game with 22 offensive touchdowns.
• Rushing Defense – KU’s rushing D has given up 188.3 yards per game and better than 5 yards per carry, ranking the Jayhawks’ 119th in the country before last week’s games. K-State, meanwhile, has been a little hot and cold on the ground, depending on the opponent and who’s been in their lineup. The Wildcats ranked 85th nationally last week at 143.6 yards per game and 4.51 yards per carry.
That’s a lot of numbers to digest, but hopefully that gives you a decent look at where these two teams sit entering this week’s showdown, which is slated for an 11 a.m. kickoff in Lawrence on TNT.
We’ll have more on the matchup, including words from KU’s players and coaches, throughout the week.
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