After a couple of tough losses and the lone bye week of the 2026 season, the Jayhawks are back in action this week against Middle Tennessee at The Booth.
Despite the fact that it's an opponent that won't get many people excited, this is a massive game for the Jayhawks.
For one, they absolutely need to play well and look good doing it to convince the home fans to stick with them. For two, they need a win to move to 2-2 on the season and regain some confidence heading into Big 12 play the rest of the way.
In our third edition of our new “Pick Six” Friday feature here at R1S1 Sports, we’ll take a quick look at some of the over/under numbers that need to go KU’s way in order for the Jayhawks to find success.
We’ll do this every week of the football season and try to have some fun with the numbers as we go. You can expect the six over/unders we use each week to be both relevant to the game and connected to where KU is (or isn’t) having success at the moment.
Let's jump back into it!
• Will KU score first? – Yes or No
The Pick: I’ll say YES, making it four straight games this season that the Jayhawks have cracked the scoreboard first. While that always seems like good news, it actually has been bad news so far. The Jayhawks are just 1-2 when scoring first this season but 21-11 in the Lance Leipold era when putting the first points on the board.
• Carries for KU RB Dylan Edwards – O/U 16.5
The Pick: I’ll go UNDER 16.5 carries for the veteran KU running back this week. With Yasin Willis out and the Jayhawks somewhat decimated at the position, it would make a lot of sense for Edwards to get another huge workload like he did against Arizona State, when he carried the ball 18 times for 89 yards in the loss in London. And, as the season goes on, I think he'll have more games like that. This should not have to be one of them, though, with KU favored by nearly 3 touchdowns. If KU is able to play to the point spread, that should allow the coaching staff to get Edwards some valuable rest in an effort to keep him as fresh as possible for the 8 Big 12 games in 8 weeks sprint that follows.
• Tate Nagy return yards – O/U 62.5
The Pick: I’ll go OVER 62.5 return yards for the KU sophomore this week. As you've all seen, he's capable of topping that mark on a single return, but even if he doesn't, given the fact that the KU defense should be in line to force Middle Tennessee into quite a few punts, I like Nagy's over here. Against Arizona State he had just 2 punt returns for 77 yards, including a touchdown. And two weeks earlier, in a win over Long Island, he had five chances for 48 yards. I think the number of opportunities in this one will land closer to five and I think that'll be enough for the electric return man to climb above his season average.
• Sacks allowed by KU's O-Line – O/U 0.5
The Pick: Give me UNDER 0.5 sacks for the Middle Tennessee defense this week. In four games this season, Derek Mason's team has recorded just 2 total sacks in games against Murray State, Marshall, Nevada and Jacksonville State. KU's O-Line should be better than what all four of those teams have, and the Jayhawks also have done a decent job of protecting Isaiah Marshall this season, allowing just 5 sacks in three games, including none in the opener against Long Island.
• Tight end receptions for Kansas – O/U 1.5
The Pick: I’ll go OVER 1.5 catches for KU's tight ends this week. As a group, they have just five catches all season, 3 by Carson Bruhn and two by Jailen Butler. That's a pretty low number for a team and an offensive coordinator that have liked to utilize the tight ends a lot over the years. And I just don't think the lack of production there will continue. A big part of it will be about Marshall getting more comfortable and the O-Line protecting him. So, if those two things don't happen, this number probably will go under. But I like over, even if it's only just 2 or 3 grabs by a KU tight end.
• KU points – O/U 34.5
The Pick: I'm seeing OVER 34.5 points for the Jayhawks this week, but not by much. Let's say 38-14 for the final score. This is the actual Vegas number, by the way, and Kansas has topped it just once this season — 51 in the opener vs. LIU — while barely combining to get above it in the last two games, with 21 against Mizzou and 17 last week. Because of the week off, the need for a big win and the opponent looking a little less nasty than an SEC foe and your Big 12 opener, I think the Jayhawks will get there.
Kickoff is slated for 11 a.m. (central) on ESPNU.
Let’s see what happens!
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