It’s game day again in LFK and few Kansas football games in recent memory — if any —can say they brought the same kind of fire and intensity that tonight’s clash between KU and No. 23 Missouri will bring to The Booth.
It’s the first game between bitter Border War rivals on KU’s campus since 2005 and just the second game in the series since Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC more than a decade ago.
The Tigers won the first game in the rivalry’s renewal, 42-31 last season in Columbia, Mo. They’re favored in the rematch, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that Kansas can give them a game.
In our first edition of our new “Pick Six” Friday feature here at R1S1 Sports, we’ll take a quick look at some of the over/under numbers that need to go KU’s way in order for the Jayhawks to find success.
We’ll do this every week of the football season and try to have some fun with the numbers as we go. You can expect the six over/unders we use each week to be both relevant to the game and connected to where KU is (or isn’t) having success at the moment.
So, let’s get it rolling and start it off with a bang on KU-Mizzou game day!
• Receptions for KU WR Nik McMillan – O/U 5.5
In his monster game last week, McMillan had 6 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. And during his strong 2025 season at Buffalo, he averaged just a touch under this number, with 62 receptions in 12 games for an average of 5.2 grabs a game. While the Jayhawks will want to run the ball and control the clock/game as much as they can against the Tigers, it’s possible that the game script could move more toward Zeke Marshall throwing the football. If he does, and if KU is chasing points and playing catchup, you can bet that McMillan will be heavily involved in that. He’ll also be looking to build on the big Week 1 showing and we don’t know yet whether Cam Pickett will be back or how effective he’ll be if he is.
The Pick: I like McMillan to go OVER 5.5 catches this week.
• KU takeaways – O/U 1.5
The Kansas defense got one last week and they’ll need to do more of that this week to win this game. It’s been well documented that this wasn’t a team that took the ball away from its opponents much last season, so to get off to a solid start with one takeaway in the opener was both good and important. They’ve gotta do more, though. If they do, that will drastically increase their chances of being in this game. The Tigers gave it away once last week, with a fumble by wideout Donovan Olugbode, who more than made up for it with 7 catches for 107 yards and 2 TDs. I’m still uncertain about what Kansas has in the secondary, so it feels like the turnovers might have to come off of strip-sacks from the guys off the edge. Getting one of those is doable. But I’m not sure we’ll see two or more.
The Pick: I’ll take Kansas UNDER 1.5 takeaways in this one.
• Rushing yards for KU QB Zeke Marshall – O/U 57.5
I think this is my favorite one of the week because of how significant it could be to the outcome of the game. Last week, Marshall ran pretty much only when he had to and didn’t do a whole lot of the designed QB run stuff. I think that changes this week and I think KU tries to get him going as a runner to attack that Missouri defense. He’s gotta find success to get over the number, but I would be surprised for a second if he runs 10 or more times against the Tigers.
The Pick: I’ve got Marshall OVER 57.5 rushing yards.
• Total carries by KU's Dylan Edwards & Yasin Willis – O/U 27.5
This one might be an even bigger indicator of how the game goes for Kansas. If the Jayhawks’ top two running backs are toting the rock a lot, that probably bodes well for the Jayhawks, who will want to get both guys going and find a way to control the game on the ground. Easier said than done against a Missouri front, but I’m sure that’s the hope. KU has to stay close and possibly even play from ahead in order to do that and I’m not sure that’s going to happen a whole lot here. Last week, in limited snaps because of the lopsided nature of the game, the two combined for 17 carries, so 11 more in a full game doesn’t seem like a big stretch. But they have to be successful in the run game for that to happen and I’m not sure what the KU O-Line will be able to do here.
The Pick: I’m going UNDER 27.5 carries for KU’s top 2 backs, but I do think it’ll be close.
• Pass attempts by KU QB Cole Ballard – O/U 2.5
This is an interesting one because we heard all offseason that both QBs would likely play in several KU game this season and if they do it won’t just be because one is a runner and one is a passer. So, the pick here pretty much comes down to how much you think KU will want to rotate or if Andy Kotelnicki will prefer to get Marshall into a rhythm and whether you think Marshall will play well.
The Pick: I bet we see Ballard, but I don’t know how much and I don’t know how likely he will be to come in throwing. I’ll go UNDER 2.5 pass attempts for KU’s QB2.
• Sacks by the KU defense – O/U 3.5
This one is quite possibly just as much of an indicator about how this game goes as the rushing questions listed above. If KU can get to Mizzou QB Austin Simmons, they’ll have a chance. If they can’t, it could be a long day. The Tigers are supposed to have one of their key tackles back for this game, so that makes it tougher, but I think KU’s D-Ends are talented enough to put some real pressure on him.
The Pick: I’ll go OVER 3.5 sacks by the KU defense.
Kickoff is slated for 7 p.m. (central) tonight on FOX. Let’s see what happens!
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